Strategies Unlimited has published a new report entitled "LED replacement lamp market analysis and forecast" that projects a global LED-retrofit-lamp market that exceeds $3.7 billion by 2016. The growth in solid-state lighting (SSL) products intended for existing sockets is from a $2.2 billion base in 2011, and the firm projects an annual 30% growth in the number of units sold.

According to the report, there were 39.9 million SSL A-lamps (A19 lamps with a legacy Edison base) sold globally in 2011. Strategies Unlimited analyst Katya Evstratyeva said that Japan led the way in consuming LED A-lamps with 24.7 million of the global total. The Japanese Eco-point program was in part responsible for the high market numbers, but Evstratyeva said other factors such as environmental concerns and high prices in compact-fluorescent lamps (CFLs) contributed as well.

Linear lamps

Perhaps surprisingly, the market for LED-based linear fluorescent replacement lamps was strong globally as well. Strategies Unlimited reports 19.3 million units sold with 41% of those sales coming in China, 21% in Japan, and only 18% combined in the US and the European Union.

Evstratyeva noted that an obstacle to more linear lamp sales is the DOE testing that has documented lower light output for LED-based replacements relative to fluorescent lamps. Evstratyeva said, "LED-tube-retrofit projects are taking place only when project owners are willing to forego the light output for the sake of energy savings."

China is a perfect example of a case where energy savings drove sales said Evstratyeva.